The Bohnker Group
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Professional Purpose
The Bohnker Group’s professional purpose is to help you, our buyers and sellers, to make the most informed decision on your biggest financial investment. We will educate you on the macro market shifts, inform you of specific hyper-local market trends, and advise on all possible solutions to meet your real estate goals. Your representation matters. We have over 15 years of experience and backing us is the Jameson Sotheby’s International Realty iconic brand that brings nearly 300 years of trust, recognition, and respect. The name alone opens the most prestigious of doors, creating opportunities and connecting affluent sellers and buyers worldwide.
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Rising interest rates and slightly lower demand in the market has caused many people to believe a housing crash is imminent. Despite some signs that the market is slowing down, you shouldn't get too worried or excited about the possibility of a housing market crash.
Recent Economic and Market Changes
Inflation in the U.S. has been on the rise since mid 2021 and reached a 40-year high of 8.2% in September. To combat the increase in inflation, the Federal Reserve has increased interest rates multiple times throughout 2022, making it more expensive to borrow money. These rapid rate changes directly impact the housing market, mortgage rates have doubled this year, which has caused some buyers to pause their home search, and sellers to receive fewer offers on average.
These rapid changes in consumer prices and home prices have been jarring for many consumers and have stirred concerns of a recession and/or housing crash. The good news is that the U.S. job market remains strong, and consumer spending is steady despite the effects of inflation.
Signs Point to a Strong Market
Despite the warning signs that the housing market might be slowing down, there isn't any indication that there's going to be a significant downturn in the market that will allow buyers to buy a home at a much cheaper price.
For one, buyer demand is still high. Many Millennials are expected to buy homes for the first time in the coming years. In 2021, first-time homebuyers made up the largest share of homebuyers at 34%. Since there are a high number of first-time buyers in the market, it's likely that demand will continue to be strong for the foreseeable future.
Secondly, housing inventory remains near historical lows. A housing crash usually happens when there is excess inventory and hardly any buyers. Lending standards are also much stricter today than in 2008, reducing the number of loan defaults and foreclosures. To give you some perspective on foreclosures (which is a big component in understanding a housing crash), in 2Q 2022 just four-tenths (.4%) of 1% of the 58.2 million outstanding mortgages in the U.S. faced foreclosure (214,800 homeowners). Of those facing foreclosure, 195,400 (91%) had at least some equity built up in their homes. Anyone waiting for a huge foreclosure wave will likely be disappointed and potentially miss out on opportunities.
The four key areas to watch for a potential housing crash:
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Employment Rate: 3.7% (Oct. 2022)
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Lending Standards: Tight Credit Standards (102 MCAI Index)
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Foreclosure Rate: Low (< 1% of 58M Outstanding Mortgages)
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Inventory: Low (3 months of inventory)
In closing, as long as home values and demand remain high, there isn't much that can cause the housing market to crash. If you want to buy a home, property values might drop slightly throughout the remainder of 2022 and into 2023; however, you shouldn't expect a housing crash anytime soon.
Whether you are looking to buy or sell now or in the future, contact us today. We would appreciate the opportunity to have a conversation with you about your goals.